The UK is set to face stiffer competition for vital migrant workers such as nurses and teachers as wages in their home countries rise and reforming economies elsewhere in Western Europe offer new opportunities

According to a new report, the number of highly skilled migrants is set to peak in 2008 before falling back, as the economic situation in other parts of the world changes. The demand for nurses to meet the needs of the NHS means that around 30% of such people work in healthcare, teaching and Government services.

Future Flows, which was compiled by the Centre for Economic Growth for recruitment consultancy Harvey Nash, says that these professions attract more highly skilled migrants than any other. It says that the expansion of the NHS since 1997 and increased Government spending on education have made these sectors hungry for staff – a hunger the national labour market has been unable to satisfy.

Despite the slowing rate of skilled migration, the number of such people in the UK is predicted to rise by 14%, to 812,000, by 2012. The majority are likely to come from the European Union, including new accession states such as Romania and Bulgaria, with further significant flows from Asia and Africa.

Staying at home

The report says: “The reduction in annual highly skilled migrant numbers will be the result of rapid economic growth in the traditional origins of highly skilled migrants and in other European countries.

“The 2004 [EU] accession member states are currently experiencing a period of rapid ‘catch-up’ growth, which is improving wage rates and living standards within these countries. There will therefore be less of an incentive to move to the United Kingdom as a way of finding improved employment.”

Future Flows goes on to warn that the reform of some Western European states will also stem the flow of highly skilled migrants into the UK.

In the past decade, countries such as France, Germany and Italy have recorded unemployment rates double that of the UK. Recently, however, unemployment has been falling in these countries, which is likely to mean that more workers can find jobs in their home countries.

The revival of these countries is also likely to mean an increased demand for highly skilled migrants and a reduction in the pool available to the UK.

Vital contribution

Although the number of skilled migrants entering Britain is expected to fall, the contribution such people make to the UK economy is likely to rise to £77 billion by 2012, according to the report.

The study also found that these migrants currently support 650,000 jobs through their spending on goods and services, meaning that, overall, they hold and support more than a million UK jobs.

Albert Ellis, Chief Executive of Harvey Nash, says: “Skills are critical to the UK economy, but critically lacking in our current workforce. Far from undermining the UK labour market, migration is vital to future economic stability, helping to fill in the gaps created by older and unskilled workforces and making an important economic contribution.”

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